Yield Forecast Accuracy: Empirical Track Record
DeFi Garden evaluates 14-day forward yield forecast distributions ([p10, p90]) against realized outcomes across single-sided lending venues, vaults, and staking markets (excluding volatile AMM LP pairs). Under our core operating principle — honest numbers beat exciting numbers — every run benchmarks predictions recorded on the exact date of emission against a naive "no-change" baseline (today's APY).
Median Band Capture
71.0%
Target: 80% nominal coverage
Median Model MAE
1.31 pp
Mean error vs median forecast
Naive Baseline MAE
1.13 pp
Mean error assuming "no change"
Median Skill Score
-0.08
1 − (Model MAE / Naive MAE)
Key Research Finding: Across 10 resolved daily test runs, the empirical 80% confidence interval captures 71.0% of actual outcomes. However, the median forecast skill score sits at -0.08: in our first 10 test runs, assuming today's rate holds was more accurate than this forecast. Roughly 60% of lending yields barely moved (<0.1 pp), which the model handled well, but on pools with meaningful rate movement (≥0.5 pp), assuming no change was substantially closer. Individual venue pages mark forecasts as experimental.
Daily Resolved Evaluation Runs (14-Day Horizon)
| Run Horizon | Emitted Commit | Venues | Dropouts | Capture [p10, p90] | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill Score | Stablecoin Capture | ≥$10M Capture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 → 09-26 | 0dc096b9909 (06:58 UTC) | 2,671 | 101 | 71.2% | 1.73 pp | 1.16 pp | -0.49 | 68.1% | 72.3% |
| 2026-09-13 → 09-27 | 20b12802e33 (07:17 UTC) | 2,580 | 189 | 70.9% | 1.46 pp | 1.18 pp | -0.23 | 66.9% | 72.3% |
| 2026-09-14 → 09-28 | 5d2c94f5c38 (07:41 UTC) | 2,581 | 194 | 70.3% | 1.84 pp | 1.15 pp | -0.60 | 65.1% | 72.7% |
| 2026-09-15 → 09-29 | c4e61d605db (07:18 UTC) | 2,570 | 202 | 71.1% | 1.48 pp | 1.33 pp | -0.11 | 68.7% | 71.5% |
| 2026-09-16 → 09-30 | b9954f25ead (07:21 UTC) | 2,562 | 203 | 69.9% | 1.53 pp | 1.09 pp | -0.40 | 64.1% | 70.6% |
| 2026-09-17 → 10-01 | 47d45f99b6e (07:15 UTC) | 2,571 | 208 | 71.0% | 1.16 pp | 1.11 pp | -0.05 | 68.7% | 73.4% |
| 2026-09-18 → 10-02 | 5c78cf5da2f (07:10 UTC) | 2,582 | 204 | 71.8% | 1.03 pp | 1.30 pp | +0.21 | 68.8% | 74.8% |
| 2026-09-19 → 10-03 | a9ee0415a2a (07:09 UTC) | 2,584 | 211 | 71.6% | 1.00 pp | 0.97 pp | -0.03 | 69.0% | 72.4% |
| 2026-09-20 → 10-04 | 2365ccc2730 (07:34 UTC) | 2,587 | 212 | 71.2% | 1.02 pp | 1.09 pp | +0.07 | 69.3% | 72.8% |
| 2026-09-21 → 10-05 | e1f8c18d8b6 (07:45 UTC) | 2,587 | 209 | 69.9% | 1.03 pp | 0.99 pp | -0.04 | 65.8% | 69.0% |