DeFi Garden

Aave V3 USDC on Ethereum: APY, DeFi Score & 14-day forecast

Live APY
4.77%
30-day mean APY
4.16%
Base APY
4.77%
Reward APY
0.00%
TVL
$125.36M

Data as of October 5, 2026. Source: DefiLlama pool data; score and forecast computed by DeFi Garden.

Open in the Decision Terminal → Go to Aave V3 →

DeFi Score: Yield Quality

Score 71.4 / 100

  • Yield stability32.1 / 35
  • Sustainability19.3 / 25
  • Capital stickiness16.4 / 25
  • Exit liquidity3.5 / 15

The score evaluates yield quality across four pillars (stability, fee sustainability, depositor stickiness, exit liquidity). Note: capital stickiness incorporates default estimates where on-chain wallet distribution is unindexed. Score and forecast details (MCP server)

14-day forecast band (experimental)

Model forecast for the next 14 days: median 3.68%, range 3.56% to 4.54% (p10 to p90).

Low case (p10)3.56%
Median (p50)3.68%
High case (p90)4.54%

Read: the model expects the rate to drift lower, from 4.77% today to about 3.68%.

Low crash risk

Experimental model: across 10 resolved test runs, in 8 of 10 assuming today's rate holds was at least as accurate. Past multi-run evaluation is publicly documented.

APY history and forecast

Aave V3 USDC on Ethereum: APY over the last 30 days, then a 14-day forecast band from 3.56% to 4.54% 3.49%4.14%4.80% 2026-09-06 today +14d
  • Observed APY
  • Forecast median
  • Forecast p10 to p90

Solid line: daily APY from DefiLlama. Shaded area: the model's p10 to p90 range, drawn as a straight fan from today's rate to the end of the forecast horizon (not daily quantiles). Dashed line: the model's median path.

What produces this yield

4.77% (100% of the total) is base yield: trading fees or interest paid by the protocol's users.

Exposure: a single asset.

DefiLlama flags no impermanent-loss risk for this pool.

Who can access it

Permissionless — anyone with a wallet

This project is not on DeFi Garden's list of restricted (KYC or accredited-only) projects. The protocol's own terms and regional restrictions can still apply.

Withdrawal notes

Exit liquidity pillar: 3.5 / 15, with $125.36M in the pool.

The model projects TVL of $155.11M in 14 days (+23.7%).

Lock-ups, cooldowns and withdrawal queues are set by the protocol's contracts and are not in the DefiLlama feed. Check the protocol's documentation before depositing.

Risks

  • Smart-contract risk: a bug or exploit in the protocol or its dependencies can lose deposited funds.
  • No pool-specific warning flags in the data beyond the standing risks above.

Education, not financial advice. DeFi carries smart-contract, market and regulatory risk, and you can lose money.

See how past forecasts performed